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Science:气候变化可能延长飞行时间

摘要 : 一项新研究表明,到本世纪末时,气候变化引发的风型变化将让往返夏威夷和美国西海岸之间的飞行变得稍久一些,同时也将伴随更多的污染。

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一项新研究表明,到本世纪末时,气候变化引发的风型变化将让往返夏威夷和美国西海岸之间的飞行变得稍久一些,同时也将伴随更多的污染。研究人员仔细查看了1995年至2013年间四大航空公司往返于檀香山和美国本土三个机场(图中的洛杉矶、西雅图塔科马和旧金山)之间的飞行数据,他们发现,从起飞到着陆的飞行时间受到了跨越这些航线的广阔空域内的高空风速的严重影响。他们接着使用了近36个气候模型来评估未来气候会如何影响同样的夏威夷至内地的航线的飞行时间。研究团队今日在《自然天气变化》在线版报告说,至2090年,这些航线的往返航班飞行时间平均会延长一分钟左右。按每家航空公司每天在一条路线上往返飞行两趟来计算,这会每年额外增加133小时的飞行时间、180万升的航油消耗(价值约140万美金),以及4600公吨的二氧化碳排放量,研究团队提出。由于风型的变化会随着地区的变化而不同,估算全球范围内气候变化对航空旅行的影响并不容易。但是,研究人员预计,即使未来商业航班数量与现在持平,全球往返航班的飞行时间增加的短短一分钟仍可能导致每年比现在额外增加30万小时的飞行时间,多消耗30多亿美金的航空煤油,并另外产生1000万公吨的二氧化碳。

原文链接:

Climate change may lengthen flight times

原文摘要:

By the end of this century, changes in wind patterns triggered by climate change will make round-trip flights between Hawaii and the West Coast last a little longer—and pollute a bit more, a new study suggests. When researchers scrutinized flight data for four major airlines along routes between Honolulu and three airports on the U.S. mainland (Los Angeles, shown in image; Seattle-Tacoma; and San Francisco) from 1995 to 2013, they found that takeoff-to-touchdown flight times were substantially influenced by the speed of high-altitude winds in a broad area straddling the air routes. They then used nearly three dozen climate models to assess how future climate might affect flight times on the same Hawaii-to-mainland routes. On average, round-trip flights along these paths will get about 1 minute longer by 2090, the team reports online today inNature Climate Change. For two round trips per day for each airline on each route, that translates into an extra 133 hours in the air each year, an added 1.8 million liters of jet fuel consumption (at a cost of about $1.4 million), and an additional 4600 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, the team suggests. Estimating the worldwide effect of climate change on air travel isn’t so easy, because wind patterns will change differently in different regions. But even if the number of commercial flights in the future stays the same as today, the researchers estimate that a mere 1-minute hike in round-trip flight time along routes worldwide would cause aircraft to be in the air an extra 300,000 hours per year, burning $3 billion more in fuel and producing 10 million metric tons more carbon dioxide than they do today.

来源: Science 浏览次数:0

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