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Science:气候变化加剧美国贫富差距

摘要 : 为量化分析到本世纪末气候变化对美国的影响,研究人员利用数学模型对美国经济进行了2.9万次模拟,分析了1981年至2010年间高温、降雨变化、海平面升高和飓风增多等对农业、犯罪、健康、能源需求、劳动力和沿海社区6项关键经济因素的影响。

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经济学家给气候变化造成的问题取了一个适当但令人沮丧的名字:损害功能。

为量化分析到本世纪末气候变化对美国的影响,研究人员利用数学模型对美国经济进行了2.9万次模拟,分析了1981年至2010年间高温、降雨变化、海平面升高和飓风增多等对农业、犯罪、健康、能源需求、劳动力和沿海社区6项关键经济因素的影响。

结果显示,相对贫穷和易受高温影响的美国南部和中西部地区遭受经济损失的风险最大。例如,高温会增加犯罪或引发玉米减产,但也可以降低寒冷导致的死亡人数。

而且,气候变化更有可能增大美国不同地区间的贫富差距,加剧经济不平等问题。如果现有全球变暖趋势继续,那么到本世纪末,美国最贫穷的1/3的县承受的经济损失将可能占其收入的20%;相反,较富裕、不易受高温影响的美国北部以及西部一些地区可能会有小幅经济增益,原因是农业收入增加、能源需求减少以及健康情况改善。

例如,大西洋沿岸地区会因海平面上升和飓风频袭付出惨重代价,而持续高温对农业的毁灭性打击,以及不断攀升的能源需求,也会严重影响南部和中西部地区的社会经济。不过,与此同时,北方和西北各州的经济可能会因气候变暖而受到温和的推动——由于严冬变短,农业产量上升,而家庭抵御严寒的能源需求也减少了。

研究人员表示,总体而言,气候变化会让美国农业平均产出减少约9%。全球平均温度每增加1摄氏度,美国每10万人中的死亡人数会增加约5.4人,美国国内生产总值平均减少1.2%。相关论文近日刊登于《科学》杂志。

“气候变化如果没有减缓,美国的大量地区将会承受非常昂贵的经济代价。”作者表示,希望该研究能督促各州和联邦政府弄清当地需求,以便采取对策,应对气候变化。

原文链接:

Here’s how much climate change is going to cost your county

原文摘要:

Economists give the problems caused by climate change an appropriately dismal name: the damage function. To project just how much damage each U.S. county will incur by century's end, researchers ran 29,000 simulations of the U.S. economy, with results informed by weather-driven damages they detected in six domains–agriculture, crime, health, energy demand, labor, and coastal communities—between 1981 and 2010. Heat, for example, may increase crime or cause corn yields to fall, but it also could lower fatalities driven by exposure to the cold. The resulting prediction, though quite fallible in its inability to predict how humans will adapt to warming, foresees a country wher, if fossil fuels continue to pour carbon into the atmosphere, the United States will divide further into a country of haves and have nots. Not surprisingly, Atlantic coastal communities are projected to take a toll from rising seas and strengthening hurricanes, but also much of the South and Midwest will be hurt by a decline in farming caused by rising temperatures, along with increasing energy demands to keep up with the heat. Meanwhile, states in the north and northwest could see their fortunes mildly boosted by warming, with farming yields rising thanks to shorter winters and less need to ward off harsh cold in homes. That’s not enough to counteract an overall negative trend for the country, which, if the planet warmed by 6°C from preindustrial levels, could suffer damage worth 6% of its gross domestic product, the team reports today in Science. The results, shown in the above map (red means total economic damage and blue is total economic benefit; projections are for 2080-2100), could guide states and the federal government toward the communities most in need of help adapting to the changed climate—should lawmakers choose to act.

来源: Science 浏览次数:0

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