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当前位置: Science » 生态&环境 » Science子刊:北京大学陶澍研究团队揭示中国城市化过程中人口迁移对空气质量的影响

Science子刊:北京大学陶澍研究团队揭示中国城市化过程中人口迁移对空气质量的影响

摘要 : 2017年7月19日,国际顶尖学术期刊《Science》旗下《Science Advances》杂志上在线发表了北京大学城市与环境学院陶澍教授课题组题为Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China的研究论文

2017年7月19日,国际顶尖学术期刊《Science》旗下《Science Advances》杂志上在线发表了北京大学城市与环境学院陶澍教授课题组题为Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China的研究论文,定量分析了城市化过程中移民家庭直接能源(不包括诸如基础建设等间接能耗)结构转型对空气质量及健康的有利影响。博士后沈惠中为第一作者,陶澍教授为论文通讯作者。

中国快速城市化导致的人口迁移近年来备受关注。大规模人口迁移改变了污染物排放和呼吸暴露特征及空间分布,但尚未有关于其对空气质量影响的定量评估。

该课题组与法国和美国相关机构研究者合作,完成了近30年人口分布变化高分辨率空间量化,结合研究组开发的PKU系列高分辨排放清单,为评估生活源及交通源直接能耗污染物排放和大气PM2.5浓度的空间变化提供了基础数据。

研究发现,农村居民移居城市后能源结构发生根本性变化,基本摆脱了生物质燃料,降低了各类生活源大气污染物的排放。在绝大多数城市,其作用超过人口聚集带来的负面效应,因此有利于改善空气质量。据估算,这一过程导致全国平均PM2.5暴露浓度下降4微克/立方米,相当于30年间减少45万人口过早死亡。与此同时,由于人口高度聚集,北京和广州等超大城市暴露水平略有上升。

人口迁移导致的PM2.5排放及浓度空间变化。(A)一次排放PM2.5的排放空间变化;(B)大气中PM2.5(一次排放及二次生成)浓度空间变化。

原文链接:

Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China

原文摘要:

Direct residential and transportation energy consumption (RTC) contributes significantly to ambient fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in China. During massive rural-urban migration, population and pollutant emissions from RTC have evolved in terms of magnitude and geographic distribution, which was thought to worsen PM2.5 levels in cities but has not been quantitatively addressed. We quantify the temporal trends and spatial patterns of migration to cities and evaluate their associated pollutant emissions from RTC and subsequent health impact from 1980 to 2030. We show that, despite increased urban RTC emissions due to migration, the net effect of migration in China has been a reduction of PM2.5exposure, primarily because of an unequal distribution of RTC energy mixes between urban and rural areas. After migration, people have switched to cleaner fuel types, which considerably lessened regional emissions. Consequently, the national average PM2.5 exposure concentration in 2010 was reduced by 3.9 μg/m3 (90% confidence interval, 3.0 to 5.4 μg/m3) due to migration, corresponding to an annual reduction of 36,000 (19,000 to 47,000) premature deaths. This reduction was the result of an increase in deaths by 142,000 (78,000 to 181,000) due to migrants swarming into cities and decreases in deaths by 148,000 (76,000 to 194,000) and 29,000 (15,000 to 39,000) due to transitions to a cleaner energy mix and lower urban population densities, respectively. Locally, however, megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai experienced increases in PM2.5 exposure associated with migration because these cities received massive immigration, which has driven a large increase in local emissions.

来源: Science Advances 浏览次数:0

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