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Science:帝企鹅或在本世纪末消失

摘要 : 帝企鹅以勇敢地面对南极严寒的冬天而著称,但它们可能无法面对气候变化的残酷现实。这是一项表明到本世纪末这种全球最大的企鹅可能不复存在的最新研究得出的结论。

帝企鹅以勇敢地面对南极严寒的冬天而著称,但它们可能无法面对气候变化的残酷现实。这是一项表明到本世纪末这种全球最大的企鹅可能不复存在的最新研究得出的结论。

此前研究表明,使海冰融化的快速变暖的大气和海洋温度可能导致帝企鹅数量到2100年骤降19%。最新模型研究了其他因素,包括单个企鹅如何通过迁移至拥有最佳海冰覆盖率的地方应对气候变化。在关于企鹅潜在迁徙路线的模型中,研究人员分析了它们通常会走多远以及哪些因素影响其决定。

他们利用了此前从南极地质学群岛收集的数据,以及揭示关于其行走和觅食行为信息的企鹅栖息地卫星图像。该模型预测,未来20年,企鹅数量将保持稳定,甚至可能随着它们迁移到更加宜居的地方而有所增加。2050年后,企鹅数量开始全面下降。尽管种群衰减的速度可能各不相同,但到2100年,几乎所有帝企鹅可能都会消失。研究人员将在最新一期的《生物保护》杂志上报告这一发现。

这是因为届时气候变化将使帝企鹅的所有栖息地都无法居住。科学家表示,将帝企鹅列入《美国濒危物种法案》的保护范围或许是阻止悲剧上演的一种方法。

原文链接:

Emperor penguins may disappear by the end of this century

原文摘要:

Emperor penguins are known for braving the harsh Antarctic winters, but they might not be able to brave the harsh realities of climate change. That’s the finding of a new study, which suggests that by the end of this century, the world’s largest penguins may be no more. Previous research suggested that rapidly warming air and sea temperatures—which melt sea ice—might cause their numbers toplummet by as much as 19% by 2100. But a new model looks at other factors, including how individual penguins deal with climate change by migrating to places with optimal sea ice coverage. In their model of potential penguin migrations, researchers looked at how far penguins typically go and what factors figure in their decisions. They used data previously collected from Pointe Géologie in Antarctica along with satellite images of penguin colonies that revealed information about their traveling and foraging behavior. The model projects that for the next 2 decades, populations will remain stable, and may even increase slightly as the penguins move to locations that are more habitable. After 2050, it all goes downhill. Although the rate of population decline may vary, by the year 2100 almost all emperor penguins may be gone, the researchers write in an upcoming issue of Biological Conservation. That’s because climate change will have rendered all their habitats inhospitable by then. Gaining endangered status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, the scientists say, may be one way of arresting what might otherwise be their final march.

来源: Science 浏览次数:0

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