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当前位置: Science » 科学&政策 » Science:机器人会不会导致你失业?


摘要 : 开巴士?因为机器驾驶员,你可能会在25年内失业。仓库管理员?你也可能会丢了工作。超市收银员?机器可能会抢走你这份短工——也就是说,如果这些还没发生,也快了。


开巴士?因为机器驾驶员,你可能会在25年内失业。仓库管理员?你也可能会丢了工作。超市收银员?机器可能会抢走你这份短工——也就是说,如果这些还没发生,也快了。经济学家一致认为,科技正在改变劳动力市场,摧毁整个岗位类别的同时也创造了新的岗位。但他们对于其影响程度各执一词。今天,在这里召开的美国科学促进会(《科学》杂志的出版商)年会上,一群计算机科学家和机器伦理学家参与到了这场辩论中,提出各自的观点。他们表示,到2045年为止,自动化或会将全球就业率——一种已知为劳动参与率的衡量方法——压低到正好50%。现在,这个数字徘徊在60%上面一点。谁是输家?位于德克萨斯州休斯敦市的莱斯大学计算机科学家Moshe Vardi表示,会是那些处于技术曲线中段的人。那些在曲线高位的,包括律师、医生,当然还有计算机程序员,仍将拥有即便最智能的机器也不可能发展出的技能(比如创造力和实况对比研究的能力)。那些处在曲线低端的,如食品服务人员,他们工资少的可怜,而不值得投资更高的成本进行自动化。同时,像数据录入员、酒店职员,以及几乎所有从事递送或运输的人们都可能因此面临危机。那么有多少人会受到影响呢?据牛津大学马丁学院的一份最新报告称,自动化将威胁印度69%的工作和中国77%的工作,与之相比美国只有47%左右。Vardi很快指出,还没有全面衡量这种风险的好方法。但是转变仍然在发生。 “我们需要开始很认真地思考:当机器几乎可以完成一切时,人类将何去何从?”


How to know if a robot is about to steal your job


Drive a bus? You could be out of work in 25 years, thanks to robot drivers. Warehouse clerk? Your job could be gone, too. Supermarket cashier? Your gig could be lost to the machines—that is, if it hasn’t been already. Economists agree that technology is transforming the labor market, destroying entire categories of jobs while creating others. But they disagree heartily over the extent. Today, at at the annual meeting of AAAS (which publishes Science) here, a group of computer scientists and machine ethicists weighed in on that debate, saying that by the year 2045, automation could push down global employment—a measure known as the labor participation rate—to just 50%. Now, that number hovers just above 60%. Who are the losers? People in the middle of the skills curve, says Moshe Vardi, a computer scientist at Rice University in Houston, Texas. Those on the high end, including attorneys, doctors, and, yes, computer programmers, will still have skills (like creativity and the ability to contextualize) that even the most intelligent machines are unlikely to develop. Those on the low end, including food service workers, are paid such poor wages that the cost of automation wouldn’t be worth it. Meanwhile, folks like data entry clerks, hotel clerks, and almost anyone working in delivery or shipping are likely to suffer. How much? According to a recent report by the Oxford Martin School, automation will threaten 69% of the jobs in India and 77% of the jobs in China, compared with just 47% of jobs in the United States. Vardi is quick to point out that there is still no good way of comprehensively measuring that kind of risk. But a transformation is still taking place. “We need to start thinking very seriously: What will humans do when machines can do almost everything?”

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